Posted on 30 July 2008
myYearbook, a social network for teenagers that launched in 2005, has raised $13 million in a Series B funding round led by Norwest Venture Partners, US Venture Partners, and First Round Capital. The new round brings the company’s total funding to $18.6 million.
myYearbook says it sees 10 million unique visitors monthly, and also makes the claim that it is the third largest social network in the US. (Not quite. It is only a fraction of the size of MySpace or Facebook, and Bebo and imeem also attract more monthly unique visitors. According to comScore, myYearbook had 4.5 million unique visitors in June, versus 5.2 million for Bebo and 6.4 million for imeem). When we last wrote about them, there was speculation that the site may have more high school users than Facebook. This is almost certainly no longer the case. Facebook has seen dramatic growth since that time, with 37.4 million uniques in June, with 10 percent of those between the ages of 12 and 17, says comScore. MyYearbook has a larger percentage of users in that age group (23.8 percent), but less than a third as many total.
Still, myYearbook continues to produce impressive stats if you look at Hitwise, with 384% in year-over-year growth.
The site intends to use the money to further expand its feature set and reach out to new members. As part of the deal, Norwest Venture Partners’ Sergio Monsalve will join the company’s board of directors.
Source:TechCrunch.com
Posted in News
Posted on 26 July 2008
Marketers need more trust-building elements on their websites to help customers make that all important decision to purchase. One particular method is to pay attention to product images and enable the consumer to scrutinize the color, size and shape as though they were in a bricks and mortar store.
Early days of online retail were hampered by poor product imagery and the inability for consumers to get a good idea of the size, shape and color of a product. Nowadays there’s no excuse for poor imagery with tools such as zoom, rotate and even video and the increase in broadband penetration and online payment options means more and more consumers are willing to shop online.
But just as a sloppy shop window will attract fewer eyeballs, so will sloppy product images on websites. Images are very important to consumers whether they’re buying a hockey stick or a house.
A case in point is eBay where, according to Jim Miotke, president of BetterPhoto.com, 83% of eBay shoppers ignore listings without images. Those items featured in galleries get 15% more activity and those with super-size photos show a 24% spike in sales, found the research.
So what can marketers do to maximize the impact product images have on consumers?
- Keep product sizes relative and consistent.
- Include ways in which the consumer can “handle” the goods as if they were in a store by allowing them the ability to zoom in to view details in close-up, i.e. clasp on a brooch or button on blouse and to be able to view the product from different angles.
- If possible, use “actual size” images or links.
- Where “actual size’ images aren’t feasible – clothing, large electronic items – include an image where the product is in context. Flowers, for instance, could be photographed in the arms of a recipient, allowing a consumer to judge the value and content for themselves and clothes are always better judged on models.
- If a product comes in a variety of colors consumers will want to know what the product looks like in their color choice. Enable them to view images of all color combinations or, at the very least, a color chart.
- Have you tried video? How about showing your products in use? Consumers are desperate for as much of the bricks and mortar experience as possible.
By paying attention to the details mentioned above and giving consumers the best visual experience of a product that they can, marketers can decrease returns while increasing retention and sales conversions.
Posted on 18 July 2008
E-commerce in Brazil, like many other Internet activities in that country, is maturing quickly. Between the first half of 2005 and 2008, e-commerce revenues as reported in e-bit’s “Web Shoppers” study nearly quadrupled to reach BRL3.8 billion ($2.2 billion). According to Valor Economico, in 2007 alone the market expanded by 43%. In terms of the number of individuals buying online, the figures are almost as dramatic, with 2.6 million buyers in 2003 rising to 9.5 million in 2007.
More likely than not, adult Internet users in Brazil have purchased something online, according to a December 2007 study by Symantec.
Brazil’s 79% of users who have purchased online is in the upper reaches of worldwide rates, comparable to such advanced Internet players as Japan (82%), the UK (79%) and Germany (78%). In contrast, only 63% of US Internet users have made an online purchase. Simply put, Brazilians who use the Internet tend to use it for everything, including e-commerce.
Online buyers in Brazil are huge media consumers. Books, magazines and newspapers ranked as the top e-commerce categories with a 17% market share in 2007, according to e-bit.
Almost one-half (49.47%) of Brazil’s online buyers use a credit card to make their purchases, versus 39.06% who use a banking ticket to buy online. Other payment methods, including debit or electronic transfer, and payment on delivery, were each favored by less than 10% of respondents to an Ipsos Public Affairs survey.
Females, who make up almost one-half of Internet users in Brazil, are a key factor driving the explosion of e-commerce. A study from e-bit reported in Business News Americas found that online transactions by females increased nearly 10% since 2000.
Posted in News
Posted on 10 July 2008
Apple’s iPhone App Store is now live. To access it, download iTunes 7.7
here. Once iTunes has upgraded, you can access the App Store here. You can “get apps” on iTunes now, but you’ll need the iPhone 2.0 software to actually use them on the iPhone, which isn’t yet available.
Source: Techcrunch.com
Posted in News
Posted on 06 July 2008
According to industry reports, in five years, more than 30% of mobile phone subscribers in China will be reading books and newspapers through their phones. The combination of greater 3G adoption and a marked increase in made-for-mobile content will drive mobile entertainment revenues to almost $48 billion by 2010.
Reports additionally forecast that 90% of Chinese newspapers would have digital editions by 2013. Perhaps it’s not an exaggeration to say that print media will move to mobile phones, especially when every other type of digital content already has.
With an estimated 600 million mobile users, according to iResearch - China has seen its mobile search users grow to 61 million at the end of 2007 and will hit 117 million by 2008 and pass 200 million by 2010.
The world of 3G connectivity is expected to change the way how interaction-technology functions, how we shop, how we share information, and in general how we use handheld devices. The how(s) remaining to get explored seem at this point, almost infinite.
Posted in News
Posted on 06 July 2008
It’s been one of the most volatile stocks in the last 12 months, and has kept even the savviest traders guessing as to its direction. Could that volatility that confounds even the best and the brightest be the key to understanding Google ’s (ticker: GOOG) future?
The market volatility indexes listed at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) provide market participants with a real-time consensus forecast of overall stock-market volatility. Specifically, VXO, the CBOE’s volatility index for the Standard & Poor’s 100 stock index, and VXN, the CBOE’s volatility index for the Nasdaq-100, provide us a forward implied volatility view for these critical equity-market segments.
Since these market volatility indexes provide short-term volatility pictures based upon the expected short-term future price action of their option series, their use is paramount to the trading community as it fills their need to properly asset allocate; and to provide them with volatility benchmarks to accurately price derivative contracts.
CBOE’s VXO and VXN are based upon implied volatilities of several near-the-money OEX and NDX index options, respectively.
Originally conceived by Prof. Robert E. Whaley and designed for CBOE, this form of volatility index is constructed so that, in real-time, provides an implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money OEX or NDX option with a constant 30 calendar days to expiration. These two distinct features provide volatility estimates, in real-time, based on the most liquid options series and balance out the differential in volatility between short-term and longer-term options, aiding portfolio managers in creating effective and consistent portfolio hedging.
Hamzei Analytics took this concept a step further. Our quest was to construct a VXO-compliant time series for each component of our favorite indexes and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and measure their individual volatility in the same way — a process that Hamzei Analytics labels as Uniform Volatility (UniVol).
Our reasoning was based on a very simple idea. Volatility cycles precede price cycles and provide a far more uniform picture. If one trades a high volatility stock, say, Google, Apple (AAPL), Baidu.com (BIDU) or Research in Motion (RIMM), it is useful to monitor that equity’s Uniform Volatility. Hamzei Analytics has been tracking this on 500 stocks, ETFs, and indexes since Oct 2000, and we keep a historical record of these observations.
Upon further research, we noticed that a trader can anticipate stock reversals if standard deviation levels (”sigma channels”) are overlaid on a graph of uniform volatility.
As an example, let’s examine the price action of Google:
The stock sold viciously for three and a half months starting Jan. 1, 2008, evaporating at least $78.5 billion in market capitalization into the thin air with two huge volume spikes in late February and then two days before its earnings report came out.
Then, let’s examine Google’s UniVol:
Google’s UniVol had a big spike down in mid-April, which came after the company’s out-of-the-ballpark earnings report on April 17. Immediately preceding that infamous day, Google’s UniVol was sideways (its 20-day moving average was flat). The day before the announcement, it spiked to its plus 3 standard deviation level (or plus 3 sigma).
There was bearishness as evidenced by the stock ticking down and the nervousness expressed about the upcoming earnings announcement in the broadcast media and other outlets. But the UniVol had maxed at plus 3 sigma which gave the reason to expect that most of the potential bad news had been priced into the stock and that good news could have a positive result.
After the earnings and the update in the company’s earnings guidance, it was jubilation — evidenced by the massive drop in Google’s UniVol next day and gap-up on the stock chart.
That was then. The $64,000 question is, what to expect next? Google is scheduled to release 2008 second-quarter earnings after the bell on July 17. The UniVol of Google is ticking up in between plus 1 standard deviation and plus 2 standard deviation.
We fully expect that it will completely spike up to its then plus 3 standard deviation (sigma level) at or near the earnings date.
As far as the price is concerned, we should see Google as low as $487 which was the low price reached on Feb 25 and the high price traded on April 7. Technically speaking this is the new support price that has to be tested.
Posted in News
Posted on 04 July 2008
As more and more people download albums and watch movies via the web, are we heading for an ‘internet crunch’?Did it take your browser a little bit longer than normal to open this article? Have you found yourself twiddling your thumbs recently as you wait two or three seconds (rather than the usual millisecond) for an email to send? Perhaps you’ve even found yourself making a cup of tea while waiting for the homepage of a particularly image-heavy website to download. Using the web, do you sometimes feel like you’re stuck in 1998 – all slow connections and snail-paced emails – rather than 2008?
If so, it might be because somewhere else on the web, a few thousand people are watching last week’s Question Time or downloading the new Coldplay album (though heaven knows why). Welcome to the internet crunch. As more web-surfers listen to music and watch TV shows and movies, there is great concern that the broadband infrastructure won’t be able to cope, and that things will slow down and possibly even come to a standstill.
New audio- and video-based sites have started to take up more and more bandwith, yet the networks – all those miles of fibre-optic cables that were laid in recent years – have not been properly upgraded. As a result, the infrastructure of the internet, the physical stuff it is built on, will potentially struggle to cope with increased demand for new, improved, snazzy online services.
All of these new services are putting an extraordinary strain on the infrastructure. For example, downloading a film in the Blu-Ray format (that’s high definition) takes up as much bandwith as a whopping 2.5m emails or 100m webpage downloads. Fifteen years ago, people like me thought it was amazing that we could send an email to a friend; today’s web-users think little of sending the equivalent of a couple of million emails as they download the latest Hollywood blockbuster.
And when you consider that the first episode of The Apprentice was watched 100,000 times via iPlayer – which must be the equivalent of someone sending millions and millions of emails, or visiting an ordinary website a few billion times – it is clear that the bandwith and infrastructure issue is one that needs to be resolved.
Is there likely to be a collapse of the internet, or is than an exaggeration? Clearly the infrastructure needs to be improved, but who should fund that improvement? If we demand that the government stumps up the money, won’t that mean increased government control – and therefore more government regulation and restriction – of the internet in general? Does anyone want that?
These questions will be answered in the future when the real internet needs will be visible.
Posted on 04 July 2008
It has long been assumed by many investors that acquiring Valueclick (VCLK) would be the first step in “plan B” for Microsoft (MSFT) if its bid to take over Yahoo (YHOO) was unsuccessful. When MSFT’s Steve Ballmer recently ruled out a slew of acquisitions of smaller internet players after pulling its bid for Yahoo, ValueClick’s stock seemed to lose some of its “takeover bait” premium over the next couple of trading sessions. Since that time, the sell off in ValueClick shares has intensified and the stock has set new 52 week lows three times over the last week as rumors swirl that it is now hunting for some strategic acquisitions of its own. As might be expected, investors appear to be pricing in 1) concerns over dilution that might accompany any acquisition 2) typical “sell the buyer, buy the seller” arbitrage or 3) that an acquisition is signaling the switch of management efforts to acquiring instead of being acquired.
Much of the chatter regarding ValueClick acquisitions has focused on the possibility of their acquiring a company that would gain them entrance to the “Pay Per Click” [PPC] advertising space, the very high margin business that the Google empire was built upon where advertisers bid for placement in search results that are offered when consumers seek information on specific keyword search terms. This business was invented by Goto.com, which became Overture.com and was acquired by Yahoo and is now Yahoo Search Marketing. This space has been dominated by Yahoo and Google (GOOG), with Microsoft making a late run to gain a foothold in this space and round out “the big three” in the PPC space. While there has always been a “second tier” of companies trying to gain traction in the pay per click space, none have been able to come close to challenging “the big three” for various reasons.
While we are not in a position to know if there is any substance to the rumors, it does seem that the recent upheaval at Yahoo might make a historic opportunity for the right company to make waves in the pay per click space. If a Yahoo/MSFT deal were to reemerge or if Yahoo moves forward with its plans to outsource much of its premium PPC business to Google, the combination of the #2 and #3 players or the #1 and #2 players in this space would leave the door open for another company to slip into the #3 position. While we don’t think there is any magic associated with being the #3 player in PPC search, we do think that there are quite a few deep pocketed advertisers out there who view both Microsoft and Google as their most feared competitors and would like to see their advertising dollars flow to someone else, particularly newspaper publishers, magazine publishers, TV, radio and other legacy media companies.
Another factor that could make for a historic opportunity to enter the PPC search fray is the current market valuations of the second tier players. Just over a year ago, all companies in the online advertising space (but particularly the owners of ad networks) were being bid up to new trading highs after the frenzied buying of many of the other players ((ie.Aquantive, Doubliclick, 24/7 Media, Linkshare, Digitas) in this space for large premiums to their trading prices. As the deal volume dried up, much of the money flowed out of these names and many are now trading at historic lows.
The two names we have seen tossed around most often as a ValueClick acquisition targets fit neatly into this category - Miva (MIVA) and Think Partnership (THK).
Miva Media Solutions, previously known as Findwhat.com, is the largest of the second tier networks. With over $100 million in annual click revenue flowing through the company’s North American and European networks, Miva stands out as the quickest option for an acquiror looking to gain heft quickly. Miva also owns a number of valuable content sites including the rapidly growing Spill.com, Screensavers.com and WeatherStudio.com in addition to a growing toolbar segment that currently boasts of over 6 million active users.
In addition to offering the possibility of instantly becoming the next largest player in PPC behind MSFT, adding highly regarded content sites and leveraging the possibilities inherent in having an installed base of over 6 million toolbars, ValueClick and others have to look at the current market valuation of MIVA as extremely attractive. With a current market cap of $32.5 million (closing price July 1), no debt and over $22 million in the bank, the same marketplace that one year ago placed a valuation on these operations of just over $225 million is currently placing a value on this same business of less than $10 million. While the $250 million+ valuation achieved during the height of the ad network buying frenzy of a year ago might be on the high side, its hard to imagine that there are not buyers out there willing to pay three or four times the current trading price to take down such a large piece of pay per click market share. ValueClick in particular does seem like a company with the complementary assets, existing clientele and market cache’ necessary to take a business like Miva’s that is struggling to be profitable and significantly expand the margins by reaching the critical mass of advertisers necessary to ramp profitability quickly. With an existing CPA (Cost Per Action) network and display advertising business that reaches 74% of US internet users, its quite likely that ValueClick’s reach and brand name would bring many more advertisers into the fold quickly and also that existing advertisers would be more likely to bid higher and spend more through a ValueClick ad network than they would through Miva owned network.
The company whose name seems to be most frequently mentioned as a takeover candidate for ValueClick is called Think Partnership, (THK). Think Partnership (hereinafter THK) is in many respects similar to ValueClick, albeit a smaller version as it is most widely known for the affiliate marketing platform (Kowabunga) within its “network” segment and the lead generation operations within its “Direct” segment.
THK’s Kowabunga is a highly regarded player in the affiliate marketing space that has long been a thorn in the side of ValueClick, whose “Commission Junction” is the largest player in the affiliate marketing space. While Kowabunga is much smaller than Commission Junction, many high profile corporate names have either chosen Kowabunga over ValueClick’s Commission Junction when they started their affiliate program (like Microsoft and Yahoo Search Marketing’s affiliate programs ) or migrated to Kowabunga after testing the Commission Junction platform (like Intuit). Taking ownership of Kowabunga would make ValueClick’s Commission Junction not only the largest affiliate program provider, but also the “go to” provider for the largest names in technology, not to mention that the removal of a competitor like Kowabunga from the playing field might allow them to raise their percentage take on affiliate transactions.
While the lead generation operations within THK’s “Direct” segment are much smaller than ValueClick’s lead generation ops from a revenue standpoint, THK has actually had more success at maintaining strong margins while steering clear of Federal Trade Commission sanctions. Additionally, the specific niche’s served by THK’s direct segment (home based business owners and life stage niche marketing) would be complementary to ValueClick’s lead generation offerings.
Despite the obvious synergies of the THK businesses above with ValueClick, it is a third aspect that makes it most attractive to ValueClick. THK’s ValidClick AdExchange offers ValueClick an entry into the Pay Per Click space with what is arguably the most differentiated offering in the PPC space and also what is likely the fastest growing ad exchange. The ValidClick AdExchange platform combines a unique patent pending technology for eliminating click fraud combined with an exclusive technology alliance with Fair Isaac Corporation (FIC) that uses analytics based on artificial intelligence and patented profiling technologies that adapt to each click and conversion, scoring publishers on their ability to drive conversions for advertisers. This new exclusive partnership with the company whose FICO score has become the standard in the lending industry makes the ValidClick Ad Exchange that much more attractive to a company wanting to differentiate themselves from the pack in the PPC space. It has also caused many of the second tier networks to run their own ads through ValidClick’s Ad Exchange to take advantage of its Click Fraud protection.
Recent comments by THK management and our own channel checks in several verticals suggest that the ValidClick exchange is experiencing exponential growth in clicks, searches and revenues generated. In the verticals we tested, we saw more than 100% growth in Q2 over the record clicks and revenue achieved by the network during Q1 2008. This Google-like growth stands in stark contrast to the declines in revenue experienced by most of the other Pay Per Click search networks (including Miva) over the last few quarters as Click Fraud concerns seem to have scared more and more advertisers away from second tier PPC networks. These concerns appear to be making the ValidClick’s click fraud prevention technology and alliance with Fair Isaac that much more appealing.
Despite the success of the ValidClick network, THK’s stock has recently traded down to a historical low, with a market cap settling in the $27 million range. With its existing business pieced together by acquisitions totaling nearly $90 million over the last three years, several business segments that appear to be flourishing and a company campaign to divest non core assets that could raise cash greater than its existing market cap, we believe that THK might look like a tremendous bargain to ValueClick and more importantly, a quick entry into the PPC space with a unique offering whose technology solves the biggest problem (Click Fraud) plaguing the second tier PPC networks.
We believe that ValueClick is uniquely positioned to make waves in the Pay Per Click space if it should make an attempt to enter the fray. We also believe that the timing is perfect for such an entry. The current Yahoo conundrum that will likely result in only two of the big three Per Per Click networks surviving combined with the capitulation among investors in the small cap online advertising names makes the “perfect storm” and possibly a historic opportunity for a well financed player with a good name to stake a claim to be the new “first tier” player in this highly profitable space. ValueClick’s sterling balance sheet (over $160 million with no debt) and scale would likely be attractive to MIVA and/or THK’s management team if they are in fact entertaining offers. We believe that they are and note that both have recently announced steps to divest of assets that would not be appealing to a ValueClick or other similarly situated suitor.
We also note that timing is of the essence as there may be some increase in the valuations accorded many of the online advertising assets when Interactive’s (IACI) spin off is complete next month and they begin shopping with their $1.5 billion cash war chest and a stock currency whose valuation will be based on the prospects of Ask.com rather than many of the slower growth businesses that plagued IACI’s valuation for so long. It will likely take just one deal by IACI, CBS’s (CBS) recently acquired CNET or one of the other media players who would benefit from owning an ad network to make the valuations move back to historical norms - much higher than where the currently reside.
Posted on 04 July 2008
FBI agents were able to cross-link surveillance video with ICQ info to arrest a man in a dark baseball cap emblazoned with the words “Top Gun” and a star and wings symbol. In 2007, First Bank of St. Louis lost about $5 million in fraudulent ATM withdrawals to someone who had hacked four iWire Prepaid Card accounts.
Surveillance video from a Washington Mutual bank branch in Brooklyn, N.Y., where some of the unauthorized withdrawals were made, showed a Caucasian man in a dark baseball cap emblazoned with the words “Top Gun” and a star and wings symbol, as well as a tan-colored sweatshirt or jacket with a dark front panel and dark trim at the zipper and collar, according to the affidavit of FBI special agent Albert Murray.
“A Google search for the UIN found that this ICQ UIN was identified with a ham radio operator who uses a specific radio call sign,” Murray’s affidavit says. “A Google search for this call sign led to Web sites for ham radio enthusiasts, such as www.hamgallery.com and www.grz.co.il.”
At those sites, investigators found photographs showing “Yuri” wearing “the same tan-colored jacket or sweatshirt as the individual in the Washington Mutual and Citibank ATM videos,” Murray’s affidavit says.
A Google search also led to a link to a Federal Communications Commission enforcement letter sent to the amateur radio operator using the radio call sign associated with “Yuri.” The letter, which detailed various ham radio rules violations, was addressed to “Yuriy Ryabinin” in Brooklyn.
On Friday, a Brooklyn grand jury returned a three-count indictment against Yuriy Ryabinin, Olena Rakushchynets, and Ivan Biltse for conspiracy to commit access device fraud, access device fraud, and obstruction of justice.
Posted in News
Posted on 04 July 2008
In Canada, nearly three-quarters of those ages 16 and older went online for personal reasons during the 12 months prior to June 2008, according to Statistics Canada’s “Canadian Internet Use Survey.” That was up from just over two-thirds in 2005.
Personal Internet use in Canada increased by 5 percentage points between 2005 and 2007. Users ages 16 and 17, who were not included in the 2005 survey, accounted for almost 1 percentage point of that increase.
In 2007, 96% of 16 to 24 year-olds went online, compared with only 29% of those 65 and older. However, Internet use increased across all age groups since 2005.
The overall age distribution of Internet users is fairly even between ages 2 and 54, according to comScore Networks’ “Canadians Online” study. For instance, there are nearly as many 35 to 44 year-old Internet users in Canada as there are 2 to 17 year-old users.
Statistics Canada estimated that 88% of people who accessed the Internet at home in Canada did so with a high-speed connection in 2007, up from 80% two years earlier. It attributed the growth to new users bypassing dial-up altogether and existing users switching from slower services.
Posted in News