Data from research firm comScore Inc. showing a drop in the number of times people click on the ads have fueled the jitters, which have already knocked almost $75 billion off Google’s market value since the beginning of the year.
ComScore released new data late Tuesday estimating that U.S. consumer clicks on Google search ads in the first quarter declined 9.3% from 2007’s fourth quarter, and rose just 1.8% from the 2007 first quarter. That compares with the 30% increase in fourth-quarter clicks from the year before that Google reported in January and a roughly 50% average increase during the previous four quarters. This “paid click” volume matters because Google gets paid for the small text ads it shows on Web search results pages only when a user clicks on one of them.
Some analysts have concluded that U.S. consumers are clicking on ads less frequently because economic problems have made them less willing to buy things. “It’s very similar to the shopping mall, where it’s full of traffic and you see people window shopping but they’re not buying anything,” says Sandeep Aggarwal, senior Internet analyst at Collins Stewart LLC. He says people are using the Internet for email and reading news, but they’re doing fewer searches for things like “cruise to Bahamas.”
ComScore says its data don’t support the idea that the economy is significantly affecting consumer search-ad clicking. “If it is, it’s to a minor degree,” says comScore Chief Executive Magid Abraham. (Google, like other Internet companies, is a paying client of comScore, though Mr. Abraham says comScore didn’t have any contact with Google during the first quarter to discuss its search-ad data.)
Instead, Mr. Abraham and some analysts cite Google-initiated efforts that are affecting the number of clicks, such as a change that made it harder for consumers to accidentally click on ads. They also note that the click data don’t take into account other factors affecting Google’s revenue, such as the price paid for each click and international activity, which represents close to half of Google’s revenue.
Google declined to comment on the comScore data or its earnings report. When it posted its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 31, Google CEO Eric Schmidt said the company hadn’t seen any impact from macroeconomic softening. In public comments since then, Google executives have said it isn’t clear yet whether those problems will hurt its business.
Still, some analysts say ad spending is dropping in some industry areas most affected by economic problems, such as financial services. Spending by advertisers in the financial, travel and retail areas declined or grew more slowly in the fourth quarter, compared with a year earlier, Yahoo President Susan Decker told analysts in January, though she said that overall the company had seen “a solid start to the year.”
It remains unclear how online advertising beyond search is affected by any consumer slowdown. Search advertising is the largest category of U.S. online ad spending, expected to account for 40% this year, according to research firm eMarketer Inc. Other forms of online advertising, such as graphic display ads and video ads, are generally priced using different models than per-user clicks.
